In my last newsletter, I mentioned that oil crises are generally short-lived. Well, this week alone, stock markets have reached new highs. It seems investors are adapting to everything and have already become accustomed to oil at $90 a barrel. Looking at oil futures contracts, a price drop and a return to normal in the coming months seem to be anticipated. This is definitely something to watch.
Private credit is making headlines
Private credit is generating a lot of buzz these days. And when the media talks about it, it's rarely because everything is going well. The main concern is the potential increase in defaults, particularly because many loans have been granted to software companies whose business models are threatened by the explosion of artificial intelligence.
The private credit market has experienced explosive growth since 2008. It is similar to a government bond, except that it is a private transaction, and therefore less liquid and less transparent. Investors are primarily pension funds, insurance companies, and high-net-worth individuals. However, a growing number of products are emerging that cater to all types of investors.
Comparison with the 2008 and 2015-2016 Crises
Of course, doomsayers will raise the specter of the 2008 financial crisis. But the comparison is hardly valid.
At the time, the crisis affected the entire American housing market, a sector of enormous scale. Today, the size of the private credit market is much smaller, and not all loans will default. The concerns mainly concern one industry, software companies, which is much smaller than the American real estate market was in 2008.
On the other hand, a better parallel could be drawn with the 2015-2016 period. American oil companies borrowed heavily to finance the shale boom, and a wave of defaults followed. In 2015, some bond funds recorded negative returns, and in 2016, the MSCI World Index posted a low return of 5.1%. Weak but not catastrophic.
But for the doomsayers, this scenario is less appealing than the 2008 crisis—especially since they often have investment strategies to sell to protect themselves and avoid a catastrophe.
Book of the Month
For those who would like to better understand the world of investments and the work of professional portfolio managers, "The Super Analysts" by Andrew Leeming is an excellent read.
The book is presented as interviews between the author and several of the best analysts of the 1990s. Although the book was published in 2000, the fundamental principles of investing remain the same.
I'd like to share a quote I loved:
"You can be right for the wrong reasons or you can be wrong for the right reasons."
In other words, you can buy any company on the stock market without any analysis and get lucky, or suffer a loss despite a rigorous approach.
The difference lies less in the outcome than in the risk taken.
Happy reading!
Daniel Dionne
Actuary by training and Financial Security Advisor - Ellipse Financial Services
Mutual Fund Representative - MICA Capital Inc.
* Sources: Trouble in private credit (The Economist – April 4, 2026)
Please note that these comments reflect my opinion and do not constitute investment advice. Each individual's unique financial situation may lead to different investment choices.
I also invite you to send me your questions, which I will answer in a future newsletter, for the benefit of all.
